Weather Forecast

[Terry H]

How about this variance in the weather forecast

Seabreeze vs Willyweather

 

 

[The Mad Hughesy]

I swear these "weather" blokes just look out the window and shake a magic 8 ball to predict the 7 day forecast

[Terry H]

I know there are many variables that go into the weather forecasts, but they're usually around the same ball park. I've seen some sites suggest 15 knots whilst other 20; but I don't think I've seen it as wildly different as 5 vs 25!

[samsteele115]

I've noticed willyweather tend to underestimate their weather predictions quite often! Not ideal. But seabreeze tend to be a bit more cautious. I think the best we can do is look at as many forecast stations as possible and try to find a bit of a pattern/average across all forecasts. 

[Terry H]

Yea that's it. I always figure it's probably going to land somewhere in between. 

Although I swear Willyweather's forecast graph has looked almost the same for a few days now. That is, windy the next 2 days and calm after that. It's almost like they're trying to tease you into thinking it may be calm in 3 days time... Where as Seabreeze is letting you know it's buggered for the week.

[Angus]

To be honest considering no one has ever claimed weather prediction a perfect science I would suggest those graphs feature plenty of similarities. Monday is definitely the anomaly. It is as if the time frame has lagged a day? Maybe that is a reasonable presumption?

[Tybo]

I use Willyweather almost daily, but it's predictions are never better then 2-3 days. I never assume when I check the coming weekend on Monday, that it'll be the same by Friday. And as Sam stated, I often find the 10-15kt forecast to be a little stronger out there.

I find that BOMs Marine Wind forecast to be a very good guide, and often the most accurate. And is never available more then 2.5 days ahead.