SEVERE WEATHER WARNING

[Gad]

IDQ20032

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Queensland

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING

for Heavy Rain

For people in the Southeast Coast district and parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett

district.

Issued at 4:50 pm on Sunday 4 March 2012

Synoptic Situation: At 4:00 pm AEST, a low pressure system was located over

northern Hervey Bay. The low is forecast to cross the Wide Bay coast this

afternoon and remain over southeastern Queensland on Monday.

Heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding is expected to develop this evening

about the Fraser and Sunshine Coasts, possibly extending to affect areas east of

the Great Dividing Range and south of Bundaberg overnight and on Monday.

Localised 24 hour rainfall totals in excess of 150mm are likely, especially

about the Sunshine Coast. Locations which may be affected include Bundaberg,

Hervey Bay, Gympie, the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane, the Gold Coast and Ipswich.

Currently moderate rain is located on radar near Fraser Island and areas north

of Noosa, extending inland to near Gayndah.

Emergency Management Queensland advises that people should:

* Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.

* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.

* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

The next warning is due to be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Sunday.

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's

website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Emergency

Management Queensland would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

[Gad]

Add on to the above Severe Weather Warning

A couple of the weather models are suggesting that some areas may cop around 300mm of rain,and suggesting that some areas may experience this rain into Tuesday.

A severe weather warning has been issued for heavy rain from Sunday afternoon continuing through Monday. Rapid water level rises will occur in the areas of heaviest falls in creeks and streams throughout the warning area. 150mm of rain is expected in a 24 hour period although locally falls may be heavier.

Catchments that may be affected include Noosa, Maroochy, Mooloolah, Mary, Barambah, Stanley, Logan, Albert and the Gold Coast catchments.

The severe weather warning can be viewed at:

/>http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20032.txt

[bootyinblue]

Anyone looked at the radar recently?

Dont cyclones twist around in a clockwise fashion?

/>http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR662.loop.shtml#skip

'What did the cyclone say to the coconut tree? Hold on to your nuts cause this is going to be no ordinary blow'

[JarrydA]

It does look quite cyclone-ish doesn't it!

Hold onto your hats!

[Gad]

Anyone looked at the radar recently?

Dont cyclones twist around in a clockwise fashion?

/>http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR662.loop.shtml#skip

'What did the cyclone say to the coconut tree? Hold on to your nuts cause this is going to be no ordinary blow'

correct,a basic difference between a cyclone and an ordinary run of the mill low is a cyclone has an eye which is dry (as in the eye of the cyclone is over us now)where as a low doesn`t technically have an eye it has a convergence point that draws in all around it and that convergent point can be very moist. most times with the moisture laden lows the twisting/spin, usually throws out the heavier rain totals off the southern sides of the low.

Technically not the exact explaination, but is close enough

Edit.. obviously this low and the one 2?? weeks ago can not be classed as"ordinary run of the mill lows" as the folks up the non-sunny coast and the wide bay areas know

also noteworthy is in the northern hemisphere cyclones go anticlock wise

[woody1]

Just read that BOM said there was a 5-20% chance it could develop into a cyclone in the next 24 hours... hmmm

[Gad]

Just read that BOM said there was a 5-20% chance it could develop into a cyclone in the next 24 hours... hmmm

Yep after a long period of drought,followed by a couple of years with floods, weather forecasters are covering their rear ends just in case:

this is what it looks like: http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.html?region=brisbane&loop=no&images=&allday=&start=&stop=π=201203050133#nav

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea

Issued at 7:17am EST on Monday the 5th of March 2012 and valid until end of

Wednesday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A low situated near Maryborough is moving slowly in a southerly direction. The

low is expected to continue moving in a southerly direction today and may

possibly move offshore of the Sunshine Coast this evening.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Eastern region on:

Monday: Low

Tuesday: Low

Wednesday:Very low

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30pm EST on Monday the 5th of March 2012 and valid until end of

Thursday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A slow moving low located near Double Island Point is expected to move

northeastwards, off the Fraser Island coast during Tuesday. There is a moderate

possibility that the low may develop into a cyclone in the short term, however

conditions become unfavourable mid week as the low moves further northwards.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Eastern region on:

Tuesday: Moderate

Wednesday:Moderate

Thursday: Low

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING

for Heavy Rain and Damaging Winds

For people in the Southeast Coast district and parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett

district.

Issued at 2:10 pm on Monday 5 March 2012

Synoptic Situation: At 1:30 pm AEST, a low pressure system [1002hPa] was located

over land near Double Island Point. The low is expected to remain slow moving

today before moving in a northerly direction overnight and during Tuesday.

Heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding is expected about the Southeast

Coast and southeastern parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett districts today,

particularly about the Fraser and Sunshine Coasts and adjacent inland areas.

Localised 24 hour rainfall totals in excess of 200mm are likely, especially

about the Fraser and Sunshine Coasts and adjacent inland areas. Locations which

may be affected include Fraser Island, Gympie, the Sunshine Coast, Redcliffe,

Brisbane, Ipswich and the Gold Coast.

At 1:30pm AEST, moderate rain was located on radar between Double Island Point

and Caloundra and over adjacent inland areas. In the 4.5 hours since 9:00am

AEST, 98mm of rainfall was recorded at Cooloolabin Dam with widespread falls of

over 70mm across much of the Sunshine Coast.

Damaging winds, with peak gusts in excess of 90km/h, are expected about the

coast, islands and adjacent inland areas between Double Island Point and Point

Lookout.

The low may possibly develop into a weak tropical cyclone if it moves offshore.

However, expected impacts over land are not likely to worsen. A separate

Tropical Cyclone Warning will be issued if necessary.

The next warning is due to be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Monday.

[bootyinblue]

correct,a basic difference between a cyclone and an ordinary run of the mill low is a cyclone has an eye which is dry (as in the eye of the cyclone is over us now)where as a low doesn`t technically have an eye it has a convergence point that draws in all around it and that convergent point can be very moist. most times with the moisture laden lows the twisting/spin, usually throws out the heavier rain totals off the southern sides of the low.

Sounds like a girl I once knew!

[Uthrax]

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING

for Heavy Rain and Damaging Winds

For people in parts of the Southeast Coast and Wide Bay and Burnett districts.

Issued at 4:45 pm on Monday 5 March 2012

Synoptic Situation: At 4:00 pm AEST, a low pressure system [1003hPa] was located

around 20km northeast of Double Island Point. The low is expected to begin

moving in a north to northeast direction this evening and continue moving

northwards on Tuesday.

Heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding is expected about the Fraser and

Sunshine Coasts and adjacent inland areas this evening and overnight before

easing on Tuesday. Overnight rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are still

likely, especially about coastal areas north of Noosa. Locations which may be

affected include Fraser Island, Gympie, and the Sunshine Coast. Heavy rain is no

longer expected for Brisbane, Redcliffe, Ipswich and the Gold Coast and the

warning for these areas is CANCELLED.

might mean next weekend is fishable

[Swagger]

most times with the moisture laden lows the twisting/spin, usually throws out the heavier rain totals off the southern sides of the low.

Is that what happened after Bootyinblue?