weather update 2

[scuba-steve]

A weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has taken effect since mid-winter and reflects the below average rainfall over the past few months over the southern, central and south-eastern Australia.

A positive IOD is when cooler then normal sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies hover NW of Australia especially around Indonesia which means usually less rainfall coming down from the tropics through southern Australia during the winter months with a lack of moisture hooking up with cold fronts and troughs from mid-winter to early-to-mid Spring. A negative IOD is exactly the opposite (when warmer than normal SST anomalies hover off NW Australia during the Winter months through to October). This usually increases moisture from the North West.

So far it looks like the winter and first part of Spring of 2011 is going to go down as a weak positive IOD year. Also with the lack of cloud, above average temps usually occur with this process which has been the case the past couple of months through south-eastern Australia.

Most long term models suggest that the IOD will weaken continue to weaken further over the coming 4 - 6 weeks and most of Australia should see a return to near normal rainfall as we move into October and November. Rainfall may be enhanced though towards the end of the year through eastern and northern Australia as La Nina redevelops.

[Gad]

.... Most long term models suggest that the IOD will weaken continue to weaken further over the coming 4 - 6 weeks and most of Australia should see a return to near normal rainfall as we move into October and November. Rainfall may be enhanced though towards the end of the year through eastern and northern Australia as La Nina redevelops.

....

seems like at this stage they may be guestimating a returning of a 30/40 year cycle

,last of which occured in the mid/late 60s`- early/mid 70s.

The last couple of springs/summers seem to be adding in to this.

If that be the case we could see the return of a regular Cat 2-3 cyclone season up North, and maybe a cyclone or 2 further south than Rocky mid/late 2011/2 season.

[scuba-steve]

well this is right . this could be true

[Guest]

Cheers boys for the update

Thanks

Darren

[Gad]

Cheers boys for the update

Thanks

Darren

No worries Kb ... I enjoy the occaisonal weather guestimate game of: may be this will be or may be it won`t be only long guestimate certainty is, if it doesn`t rain it will stay dry

[haines490slc]

what is the weather going to be like on the 26th of November - 4th Dec?

[Gad]

what is the weather going to be like on the 26th of November - 4th Dec?

long range forecast.. if it doesn`t rain it will be dry

[BassTracker]

I just did the sums gad and after dividing by 2 and carrying the 1 it appears that for those dates your spot on!

[scuba-steve]

lol thats it hey.. sum it up nicely if it does not rain it will be dry lol ...